Climate Change Impact on the Population Size of Parlatoria oleae (Colvee) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) using RCP Scenarios

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Parlatoria oleae, RCPs, Seasonal Abundance, Climate Change Scenarios, Mango
Bakry, Moustafa M. S.; Mohamed, Lamiaa H. Y.; Shakal, Shimaa Y. E.
The present study was carried out to predict the population densities of the plum scale insect, Parlatoria oleae (Colvee) on mango trees during three time series (2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070 and 2071 - 2100) under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) as compared with the current population of the pest (average of population density for two years of 2017 and 2018) at Esna district, Luxor Governorate, Egypt. Monthly estimations of total P. oleae population indicated the presence of three peaks of insect activity per year. The means of minimum air temperature were entirely under the optimum range for activities of nymphs, adult females and total population of P. oleae and this climatic factor was the most effective variables in population changes by 35.99, 36.00 and 36.30% for nymphs, adult females and total population of P. oleae during the base year data, respectively. The percentages of explained variance (E.V.%) indicated that the combined effect of these climatic factors viz., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation were responsible for 78.75, 77.15 and 78.66 % of the population changes of nymphs, adult females and total population of this scale insect, respectively. The obtained results revealed the all expected values for numbers of nymphs, adult females and total population of insect during the all different time series under all different RCPs scenarios were smaller in comparison to the current population of insect. Expected total population of insect will be smaller at time series of (2071-2100) as compared with the two time series of (2011-2040) and (2041-2070) under the scenarios of RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5). Also, the time series of (2071-2100) exhibited higher percentages of decreasing of the number of nymphs, adult females and total population with averages of (55.12, 57.26 and 56.08%, respectively) as compared to the time series of 2041-2070 (53.26, 55.34 and 54.20%) and the time series of 2011-2040 (50.91, 52.92 and 51.81%, respectively). Furthermore, the RCP 8.5 scenario exhibited the lowest population density of nymphs, adult females and total population P. oleae and the highest decreasing percentage for population density of different stages of P. oleae as compared with the other RCPs during all different time series.

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